NL Central Preview: Cincinnati Reds
Sorry for the long delay. Here's the Reds portion of my NL Central preview.
Cincinnati Reds
2004 Record: 76-84, 4th place
The Reds are quickly gaining recognition as a good team. With seasoned veterans mixed in among a solid young nucleus, this is a team on the rise. Cincinnati executives spent most of the offseason working to improve the team's pitching, which started strong last year but imploded before midseason.
New in '05: LHP Eric Milton (Phillies), RHP Ramon Ortiz (Angels), RHP David Weathers (Marlins), RHP Ben Weber (Angels), LHP Kent Mercker (Cubs), 3B Joe Randa (Royals), and RHP Ricky Stone (Padres)
See Ya: SS Barry Larkin (retired), IF Juan Castro (Twins), RHP John Reidling (Marlins), LHP Phil Norton (Astros), LHP Gabe White (Braves), 1B/OF John Vander Wal (unsigned), RHP Todd Van Poppel (Mets), and OF Darren Bragg (Indians)
The Outfield: The Reds have four candidates to fill the three outfield spots. Adam Dunn is a lock in LF after having a break-out 2004 in which he finished 3rd in the league in HR (46), 10th in slugging % (.569), and 6th in walks (108). Despite his major league record 195 strikeouts, Dunn had an OBP of .388 and set a career-high in batting average with .266 last year. He is one of the top young players in the game, and if he can strikeout less and continue to post triple-digit BB totals, then the sky is the limit. CF Ken Griffey, Jr. will once again (I've lost count of the seasons) try to make a comeback after suffering a season-ending injury in 2004. As everyone knows, if healthy, he is a Hall of Fame caliber outfielder. Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena will be left to fight for the right field spot. There has been talk of shifting Griffey to right to lessen the chance of injury, but regardless, the Reds have 4 qualified outfielders and only 3 spots. Wily Mo Pena (gotta love the name) hit 26 HR and drove in 66 runs last year in only 366 AB. Kearns has been excellent, when healthy, and is a great right-handed batter who can hit for average and power. Someone will be squeezed out, or a plattoon system will have to be implemented. Of course, an injury (Griffey? again) could open up a spot.
The Infield: Sean Casey is the heart and soul of this infield, and he is among the best first-baseman around. The Cub Killer hit .324, smacked 24 HR, and drove in 99 runs last year. Newly acquired third-baseman Joe Randa takes over at the hot corner. Randa is a solid competitor, but nothing spectacular. Expect 15 HR, 70 RBI, and about a .285 average from him. The middle infield is without Barry Larkin for the first time in almost two decades, and Felipe Lopez will be his successor. At 24, Lopez should be mature enough to provide solid production and defense from shortstop. To fill the second base hole, the Reds signed D'Angelo Jimenez, a speedy guy with decent pop in his bat. While this infield is nothing spectacular, offensively or defensively, it should be good enough to keep the Reds competitive.
Rotation: This offseason, Reds GM Dan O'Brien knew his top priority was pitching. Rather than fill out the rotation with youngsters and hope for the best, O'Brien signed lefty Eric Milton and traded for veteran right-hander Ramon Ortiz to complement staff ace Paul Wilson.
Wilson was solid for the Reds and finished 11-6, but his record could have been even better had the bullpen not blown 6 saves in his starts. Milton and Ortiz are both still in the prime of their careers and hope to help turn Cincinnati around. Ortiz averaged 15 wins from 2001-2003, but spent last year bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. With the Reds, Ortiz will be given stability and could easily return to his 2001-2003 success, despite last year's woes. Milton, a free agent from the Phillies, went 14-6 last year. His 4.75 ERA is a little troubling, but he still had success despite the high ERA. If he wants to make himself even better, he needs to cut down on home runs allowed (43 last year). Aaron Harang should be the fourth starter, and will look to build on last year, during which he led the team in strikeouts. The fifth spot is a toss-up between Luke Hudson, Brandon Claussen and Josh Hancock, and no one seems to have an edge over another. This rotation will be improved greatly from 2004, but don't expect a Cy Young from any one.
Bullpen: There is simply no denying it; the 2004 bullpen was awful. The only bullpen worse than the Reds' was the Rockies' pen, and we all know where the Rockies play. The pen progressively got worse as the season went on. To help rebuild the bullpen, the Reds signed free agents Kent Mercker, David Weathers and Ben Weber. Mercker is coming off a solid season with the Cubs, while Weathers and Weber are hoping to improve. Closer Danny Graves saved 41 games last year, but also blew 9. If the Reds can get the ball to Graves with a lead, it is very likely a win will result. While this pen will be improved, it will still give up a lot of runs and cost the Reds quite a few games.
Outlook: The Reds will have a record high payroll this season of over $63 million, but money does not always translate into wins. The key to success for Cincinnati is simply health. A healthy lineup and staff will allow the Reds to compete, rather than scramble to fill holes created by injuries. The Reds were in the NL Central race for over two months last year, but poor pitching and injuries cost them a shot at a winning record. While the 2005 team will be better, don't expect a playoff berth. A .500 record will be an accomplishment for this team. If all goes well, expect an 81-81 record from the 2005 Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati Reds
2004 Record: 76-84, 4th place
The Reds are quickly gaining recognition as a good team. With seasoned veterans mixed in among a solid young nucleus, this is a team on the rise. Cincinnati executives spent most of the offseason working to improve the team's pitching, which started strong last year but imploded before midseason.
New in '05: LHP Eric Milton (Phillies), RHP Ramon Ortiz (Angels), RHP David Weathers (Marlins), RHP Ben Weber (Angels), LHP Kent Mercker (Cubs), 3B Joe Randa (Royals), and RHP Ricky Stone (Padres)
See Ya: SS Barry Larkin (retired), IF Juan Castro (Twins), RHP John Reidling (Marlins), LHP Phil Norton (Astros), LHP Gabe White (Braves), 1B/OF John Vander Wal (unsigned), RHP Todd Van Poppel (Mets), and OF Darren Bragg (Indians)
The Outfield: The Reds have four candidates to fill the three outfield spots. Adam Dunn is a lock in LF after having a break-out 2004 in which he finished 3rd in the league in HR (46), 10th in slugging % (.569), and 6th in walks (108). Despite his major league record 195 strikeouts, Dunn had an OBP of .388 and set a career-high in batting average with .266 last year. He is one of the top young players in the game, and if he can strikeout less and continue to post triple-digit BB totals, then the sky is the limit. CF Ken Griffey, Jr. will once again (I've lost count of the seasons) try to make a comeback after suffering a season-ending injury in 2004. As everyone knows, if healthy, he is a Hall of Fame caliber outfielder. Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena will be left to fight for the right field spot. There has been talk of shifting Griffey to right to lessen the chance of injury, but regardless, the Reds have 4 qualified outfielders and only 3 spots. Wily Mo Pena (gotta love the name) hit 26 HR and drove in 66 runs last year in only 366 AB. Kearns has been excellent, when healthy, and is a great right-handed batter who can hit for average and power. Someone will be squeezed out, or a plattoon system will have to be implemented. Of course, an injury (Griffey? again) could open up a spot.
The Infield: Sean Casey is the heart and soul of this infield, and he is among the best first-baseman around. The Cub Killer hit .324, smacked 24 HR, and drove in 99 runs last year. Newly acquired third-baseman Joe Randa takes over at the hot corner. Randa is a solid competitor, but nothing spectacular. Expect 15 HR, 70 RBI, and about a .285 average from him. The middle infield is without Barry Larkin for the first time in almost two decades, and Felipe Lopez will be his successor. At 24, Lopez should be mature enough to provide solid production and defense from shortstop. To fill the second base hole, the Reds signed D'Angelo Jimenez, a speedy guy with decent pop in his bat. While this infield is nothing spectacular, offensively or defensively, it should be good enough to keep the Reds competitive.
Rotation: This offseason, Reds GM Dan O'Brien knew his top priority was pitching. Rather than fill out the rotation with youngsters and hope for the best, O'Brien signed lefty Eric Milton and traded for veteran right-hander Ramon Ortiz to complement staff ace Paul Wilson.
Wilson was solid for the Reds and finished 11-6, but his record could have been even better had the bullpen not blown 6 saves in his starts. Milton and Ortiz are both still in the prime of their careers and hope to help turn Cincinnati around. Ortiz averaged 15 wins from 2001-2003, but spent last year bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. With the Reds, Ortiz will be given stability and could easily return to his 2001-2003 success, despite last year's woes. Milton, a free agent from the Phillies, went 14-6 last year. His 4.75 ERA is a little troubling, but he still had success despite the high ERA. If he wants to make himself even better, he needs to cut down on home runs allowed (43 last year). Aaron Harang should be the fourth starter, and will look to build on last year, during which he led the team in strikeouts. The fifth spot is a toss-up between Luke Hudson, Brandon Claussen and Josh Hancock, and no one seems to have an edge over another. This rotation will be improved greatly from 2004, but don't expect a Cy Young from any one.
Bullpen: There is simply no denying it; the 2004 bullpen was awful. The only bullpen worse than the Reds' was the Rockies' pen, and we all know where the Rockies play. The pen progressively got worse as the season went on. To help rebuild the bullpen, the Reds signed free agents Kent Mercker, David Weathers and Ben Weber. Mercker is coming off a solid season with the Cubs, while Weathers and Weber are hoping to improve. Closer Danny Graves saved 41 games last year, but also blew 9. If the Reds can get the ball to Graves with a lead, it is very likely a win will result. While this pen will be improved, it will still give up a lot of runs and cost the Reds quite a few games.
Outlook: The Reds will have a record high payroll this season of over $63 million, but money does not always translate into wins. The key to success for Cincinnati is simply health. A healthy lineup and staff will allow the Reds to compete, rather than scramble to fill holes created by injuries. The Reds were in the NL Central race for over two months last year, but poor pitching and injuries cost them a shot at a winning record. While the 2005 team will be better, don't expect a playoff berth. A .500 record will be an accomplishment for this team. If all goes well, expect an 81-81 record from the 2005 Cincinnati Reds.
posted by PB4baseball @ 4:52 PM
<< Home