NL Central Preview: Houston Astros
After a long delay, here is the Astros portion of my NL Central Preview.
Houston Astros
2004 Record: 92-70, 2nd place
After making it to the NLCS last year and losing to St. Louis, the Astros will be looking to return to the postseason in 2005. However, free-agent departures and injuries may derail any postseason hopes.
New in '05: P Turk Wendell (Rockies), P Dave Burba (Giants), P John Franco (Mets), P Dan Wheeler (Marlins), OF Charles Gipson (D-Rays)
See Ya: CF Carlos Beltran (Mets), 2B Jeff Kent (Dodgers), P Wade Miller (Red Sox), P Darren Oliver (Rockies), P Dan Miceli (Yomuiri Giants)
The Outfield: With Carlos Beltran leaving via free agency and Lance Berkman out until at least May 1st with an offseason knee injury, the Astros' outfield is in shambles. Youngster Jason Lane will likely get a starting outfield spot, and despite the temptation to return Craig Biggio to second-base after Kent's departure, he will have to play in the outfield again. Also, it appears Orlando Palmeiro will start in RF. Palmeiro has never been anything more than a backup and pinch-hitter in his career, and most likely will do nothing more than fill out the outfield. With the return of Berkman, this outfield may return to respectability, but at the moment it is quite pathetic. Defensively, losing Beltran was a huge blow in the wrong direction. Combine that with 36 year old career backup Palmeiro in right, a rookie (Lane) in center, and 39 year old Biggio in left, the oufield is, without a doubt, headed for disaster.
The Infield: As with the outfield, the infield does not look very stable. Jeff Kent's departure leaves a gaping hole in the infield. Rookie Chris Burke is expected to replace Kent at second. Burke is a solid hitter with speed and occassional pop, but he won't match Kent's production (.289 Avg, 27 HR, 107 RBI). The aging Jeff Bagwell remains at first, but continues to suffer from shoulder problems and will be hard pressed to reach his '04 totals (.266 Avg, 27 HR, 89 RBI). Catcher Brad Ausmus is gold-glove caliber behind the plate. Adam Everett will return at shortstop and is coming off a promising year cut short by a fractured wrist. Everett will provide average and speed, as well as a solid glove. At third-base, Morgan Ensberg will be the starter and is a decent all-around player. While he is nowhere near the likes of Scott Rolen or Aramis Ramirez, Ensberg is a solid player with good power. Defensively, this infield is nothing special. With a rookie at second and only average defense at the corners, don't expect too many Web-Gems.
Starting Rotation: With Roger Clemens returning for another year and 20-game winner Roy Oswalt, the front end of the rotation is in good shape. Lefty Andy Pettite must come back strong from 2004's injury plagued season if this rotation is to be successful. Last season's success is enough to earn Brandon Backe the 4th spot in the rotation, and will be counted on for innings and quality starts. The 5th spot is still up for grabs. Pete Munro, who ended last season as the 5th man, and lefty Carlos Hernandez will compete for the final rotation spot. With health concerns and several youngsters, this rotation is a bit shaky. After Clemens and Oswalt, the rest are very beatable and may cause the season to nose-dive straight down to disaster.
Bullpen: Brad Lidge has established himself as one of the top closers in the league. However, the Astros may have trouble getting the ball to Lidge with a lead. This problem was exposed in the 2004 postseason, and manager Phil Garner often used Lidge for 2+ innings to protect leads and prevent the weak bullpen from blowing games. That strategy will not work over the long, 162 game season, and Houston's bullpen will need to improve. This offseason, the Astros have not made any major improvements to the pen, and if the relievers falter, the starters and Lidge will be called upon to pitch the majority of the team's innings. The bullpen is key to Houston's '05 success, but in all likelihood, the bullpen will dash any playoff hopes.
Outlook: Overall, the '05 Astros are a much weaker team than the '04 Astros. With a weak lineup, this team will struggle to score runs. Losing Beltran was the worst blow to the team, offensively and defensively, and will be impossible to replace. The rotation must stay healthy and its youngsters must step up. The bullpen must also step up its performance and create a solid bridge from the starters to closer Lidge. All factors considered, a 83-79 season is very likely for the Astros, a great disappointment from last years postseason birth and success.
Houston Astros
2004 Record: 92-70, 2nd place
After making it to the NLCS last year and losing to St. Louis, the Astros will be looking to return to the postseason in 2005. However, free-agent departures and injuries may derail any postseason hopes.
New in '05: P Turk Wendell (Rockies), P Dave Burba (Giants), P John Franco (Mets), P Dan Wheeler (Marlins), OF Charles Gipson (D-Rays)
See Ya: CF Carlos Beltran (Mets), 2B Jeff Kent (Dodgers), P Wade Miller (Red Sox), P Darren Oliver (Rockies), P Dan Miceli (Yomuiri Giants)
The Outfield: With Carlos Beltran leaving via free agency and Lance Berkman out until at least May 1st with an offseason knee injury, the Astros' outfield is in shambles. Youngster Jason Lane will likely get a starting outfield spot, and despite the temptation to return Craig Biggio to second-base after Kent's departure, he will have to play in the outfield again. Also, it appears Orlando Palmeiro will start in RF. Palmeiro has never been anything more than a backup and pinch-hitter in his career, and most likely will do nothing more than fill out the outfield. With the return of Berkman, this outfield may return to respectability, but at the moment it is quite pathetic. Defensively, losing Beltran was a huge blow in the wrong direction. Combine that with 36 year old career backup Palmeiro in right, a rookie (Lane) in center, and 39 year old Biggio in left, the oufield is, without a doubt, headed for disaster.
The Infield: As with the outfield, the infield does not look very stable. Jeff Kent's departure leaves a gaping hole in the infield. Rookie Chris Burke is expected to replace Kent at second. Burke is a solid hitter with speed and occassional pop, but he won't match Kent's production (.289 Avg, 27 HR, 107 RBI). The aging Jeff Bagwell remains at first, but continues to suffer from shoulder problems and will be hard pressed to reach his '04 totals (.266 Avg, 27 HR, 89 RBI). Catcher Brad Ausmus is gold-glove caliber behind the plate. Adam Everett will return at shortstop and is coming off a promising year cut short by a fractured wrist. Everett will provide average and speed, as well as a solid glove. At third-base, Morgan Ensberg will be the starter and is a decent all-around player. While he is nowhere near the likes of Scott Rolen or Aramis Ramirez, Ensberg is a solid player with good power. Defensively, this infield is nothing special. With a rookie at second and only average defense at the corners, don't expect too many Web-Gems.
Starting Rotation: With Roger Clemens returning for another year and 20-game winner Roy Oswalt, the front end of the rotation is in good shape. Lefty Andy Pettite must come back strong from 2004's injury plagued season if this rotation is to be successful. Last season's success is enough to earn Brandon Backe the 4th spot in the rotation, and will be counted on for innings and quality starts. The 5th spot is still up for grabs. Pete Munro, who ended last season as the 5th man, and lefty Carlos Hernandez will compete for the final rotation spot. With health concerns and several youngsters, this rotation is a bit shaky. After Clemens and Oswalt, the rest are very beatable and may cause the season to nose-dive straight down to disaster.
Bullpen: Brad Lidge has established himself as one of the top closers in the league. However, the Astros may have trouble getting the ball to Lidge with a lead. This problem was exposed in the 2004 postseason, and manager Phil Garner often used Lidge for 2+ innings to protect leads and prevent the weak bullpen from blowing games. That strategy will not work over the long, 162 game season, and Houston's bullpen will need to improve. This offseason, the Astros have not made any major improvements to the pen, and if the relievers falter, the starters and Lidge will be called upon to pitch the majority of the team's innings. The bullpen is key to Houston's '05 success, but in all likelihood, the bullpen will dash any playoff hopes.
Outlook: Overall, the '05 Astros are a much weaker team than the '04 Astros. With a weak lineup, this team will struggle to score runs. Losing Beltran was the worst blow to the team, offensively and defensively, and will be impossible to replace. The rotation must stay healthy and its youngsters must step up. The bullpen must also step up its performance and create a solid bridge from the starters to closer Lidge. All factors considered, a 83-79 season is very likely for the Astros, a great disappointment from last years postseason birth and success.
posted by PB4baseball @ 9:23 PM
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